New Delhi: The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continues to hold a clear advantage in the event of a Lok Sabha election today, but the latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey points to some erosion in its support.
The August 2026 survey projects 326 seats for the NDA, down from the 352 seats forecast in the January edition. The projection remains comfortably above the 272-seat majority mark, although it falls well short of the BJP-led alliance’s ambitious ‘400 paar’ target projected during the 2024 election campaign.
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The Congress-led INDIA bloc, meanwhile, is projected to win 185 seats, marginally higher than the 182 seats predicted in January. The figure, however, remains below the 234 seats secured by the opposition alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
At the party level, the BJP is projected to win 261 seats, a decline of 26 seats from the 287 forecast in the January survey. The latest projection is nevertheless significantly higher than the 240 seats the party won in the 2024 elections.
The Congress appears to have made considerable gains in the survey. Its projected tally has risen to 106 seats, compared with 80 seats in January and 97 seats in the August 2025 edition.
The findings come amid heightened political debate over issues such as examination paper leaks, irregularities in the education system, student protests and the government’s handling of demonstrations. The Congress has also sought to expand its political campaign by highlighting issues including women’s reservation and the police action against student protesters.
The vote-share projections indicate a relatively narrow gap between the two major political blocs. The NDA is projected to secure 45.1% of the vote, down from 47% in January, but still above the 44% it secured in the 2024 elections. The INDIA bloc is projected to receive 39.1%, virtually unchanged from the 39% forecast in the previous survey.
The MOTN survey was conducted by CVoter between July 1 and August 25, with 25,184 respondents directly interviewed. It also incorporated 91,795 interviews conducted during the preceding six months as part of CVoter’s regular tracking exercise.
Vijay emerges as surprise third choice for PM
One of the more striking findings of the survey is the emergence of Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder C Joseph Vijay as a prominent choice for the next Prime Minister.
The actor-turned-politician secured 9.2% of respondents’ preference, placing him third behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who received 48.7%, and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who polled 27.1%.
Vijay’s position is notable given his relatively recent entry into electoral politics. His emergence also assumes significance in the context of Tamil Nadu politics, where the TVK has emerged as a new political force.
Among other leaders, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee received 2% support, followed by Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav at 1.7% and AAP national convenor Arvind Kejriwal at 1.2%.
The survey’s findings suggest that while the NDA continues to enjoy a substantial electoral advantage, the decline in its projected seats and vote share, coupled with the BJP’s reduced tally, points to a shifting political landscape ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
Highlights
• NDA projected at 326 seats if Lok Sabha elections are held today, down from 352 in January.
• BJP projected at 261 seats, compared with 287 in the January survey.
• Congress projected to win 106 seats, sharply up from 80 in January.
• INDIA bloc projected at 185 seats, marginally higher than the earlier estimate of 182.
• NDA vote share at 45.1%, down from 47% in January; INDIA bloc at 39.1%.
• Narendra Modi remains the top PM choice with 48.7%, followed by Rahul Gandhi at 27.1%.
• Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay makes a striking debut at No. 3, with 9.2% support as the preferred choice for the next PM.
• The survey suggests the NDA remains comfortably ahead, but the decline in its projected seats and vote share indicates some erosion in support.
• The survey was based on 25,184 direct interviews, supplemented by 91,795 tracking interviews conducted over the preceding six months.
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