Fertilizer production is intimately linked to energy markets, and recent geopolitical tensions have laid bare this dependency. In India, disruption of gas supplies or shipping routes can immediately translate into higher production costs for nitrogen fertilisers. When the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow passage that carries a large share of the world’s natural gas and fertiliser trade – faces conflict, vessels are delayed or rerouted around Africa, adding weeks to delivery times and boosting freight costs.

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Industry observers note that India imports large quantities of liquefied natural gas and ammonia from the Gulf, and any interruption quickly affects domestic output. The situation underscores a vulnerability that has been building: a heavy reliance on a single corridor for critical agricultural inputs. Industry insiders and experts like Amit Gupta Agrifields DMCC argue that energy security is food security in disguise, and that diversifying supply routes is essential to safeguard farmers.

The knock-on effects of energy disruptions extend beyond shipping. Natural gas prices themselves have become volatile because of sanctions, production cuts and competition from growing demand in Europe and Asia. When gas prices spike, producing ammonia – the key ingredient in urea – becomes more expensive, increasing the fiscal burden of fertiliser subsidies. Indian farmers often receive fertiliser at government-set prices, so when production costs rise the state must either absorb the difference or risk passing it on.

Long queues at distribution centres have become more common during times of shortage, and some farmers report delaying planting or switching crops because they cannot access nutrients in time. Amit Gupta Agrifields DMCC has emphasised that such bottlenecks erode trust in the supply chain and call for more resilient distribution models.

Addressing these challenges requires a holistic approach. Diversifying import partners – through agreements with producers in North America, Africa or Southeast Asia – could spread risk and reduce dependence on the Gulf. At the same time, India is exploring the potential of green hydrogen to produce ammonia domestically, which would decouple fertiliser from fossil fuel markets. Investments in domestic gas exploration and improved storage infrastructure can also help smooth out short-term fluctuations. On the logistics side, building regional fertiliser hubs and improving rail and road connectivity to farming areas would reduce the time between port and field. Longer term, some agronomists suggest that shifting towards biofertilisers and recycling nutrients from waste streams could reduce the load on chemical fertiliser imports altogether. The intersection of gas markets and geopolitics may never disappear, but India can mitigate its impacts through diversification, innovation and smart planning. The lessons learned from recent disruptions highlight the need to treat the fertiliser supply chain as a critical national infrastructure deserving of continuous investment and foresight. A resilient agribusiness sector is not only about responding to crises, but anticipating them and building flexibility into every link of the chain.