India’s second wave of Covid-19 is expected to decline by July this year. A third wave of the pandemic is expected in about six to eight months. These are the fairly optimistic projections made by the three-member panel of scientists set up by the Department of Science and Technology under the science ministry of the Government of India.
Using the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach) model, the scientists predicted that the end of May will see about 1.5 lakh cases per day and the end of June will witness 20,000 cases on a daily basis.
“States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak,” said Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur, a member of the panel.
According to the model, a third wave is expected in six to eight months. The impact of the same can be cushioned.