The MET department based in Pune, has meanwhile, predicted a less than normal rainfall all over the country again this year. Rains in the state are predicted to be in the range of 90 to 96% of average. Since these are all estimates which are not 100% accurate they have given the range of predictability too – so the above happening is said to be 35% accurate. There is a less than 30% chance that rains will be deficient to the extent of being less than 90% of average too.
On the optimistic side, the chance of rains exceeding average and falling as per average i.e. 96% to 104% is 28%. Rainfalls exceeding average is almost next to impossible with a chance of just 3%.
Most rainfall in the state will be between June and September.
These figures have all been calculated by the Indian Institute of tropical meteorology monsoon mission. El Nino effect will be seen since tempratures of water in Indian ocean in the west and center have have been warmer than normal in the last six months while from December 2014 to March 2015 they have been cooler in east Indian ocean. Thus ocean currents will be such that there is a very real possibility of the El Nino effect which leads to deficient monsoons.