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    Published On : Sun, Mar 9th, 2014

    Nagpur Today Poll Watch: Final battle between Congress-BJP; AAP-BSP to play spoilsport

    Nagpur News.

    As the election battle has drawn closer with loads of uncertainty over who would lead the nation’s top post of Prime Minister in the 16th Lok Sabha, the fight for Nagpur seat too is not any exception. In its first list of 194 Congress candidates, Vilas Muttemwar, seven time  MP, has become the party’s obvious choice for Nagpur seat along with Mukul Wasnik for Ramtek Lok Sabha constituency. BJP has already pitched Nitin Gadkari with an aim to demolish Congress bastion and the new entrant AAP has fielded Anjali Damania to make the fight the interesting ever in Nagpur.

    Agreed…that politics is the game of uncertainty and elections are the high points that drive this game to blind turn, but this year it’s getting rather difficult for analysts to derive poll perfect equation. The situation at the Centre is like now-here-then-there. Congress’ favorite child Rahul Gandhi appears to be competing for the PM’s post with BJP’s star power Narendra Modi, but the fight has been further escalated with regional power makers Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha and more recently Nitish Kumar putting up their claims for the top job. Back in Nagpur, the appearance of AAP has somewhat distorted the already framed picture of polls.

    However the picture will get crystal clear by the end of May this year, the speculation continues to mount high on the heads of not only poll pundits and political leaders, especially those in the fray, but also on the minds of voters who appear bit uncertain this time around. So we have another set of equation.

    After series of brain storming session and constant interaction with the voters and poll experts our team worked on stretch to present a close picture of what the political game fetched in the last general elections and how it could differ this time.

    Here’s a brief account of Nagpur Today’s in-depth observation,

    Recap of last polls :

    General elections 2009 – Turnout 7,55,369

    Votes Shared

    [skillwrapper type=”gage”]
    [skill percent=”41.72″ title=”INC” bar_foreground=”#00FF00 ” bar_background=”#eee”]
    [skill percent=”38.49″ title=”BJP” bar_foreground=”#FF6600″ bar_background=”#eee”]
    [skill percent=”15.72″ title=”BSP” bar_foreground=”#660099″ bar_background=”#eee”]
    [/skillwrapper]

    During last Lok Sabha elections when Aam Aadmi Party was nowhere in the scene, BSP appeared as the key dent maker in the BJP’s vote bank. This led to division of votes in BJP, leading it to fetch approximately 10% less than what it expected. A total of 7,55,369 votes were polled in Nagpur parliamentary constituency during last elections which accounted for 43.43% voting, remarkably far less than expected turnout. At that time Congress candidate Vilas Muttemwar secured 3,15,148 votes which is 41.59% of the total votes polled. BJP’s Purohit drew 2,90,749 (38.37%) votes in his favour while BSP took away 1,18,741 votes (15.67%) cracking BJP’s aspirations. Had the things lived up to BJP’s expectations, its candidate Banwarilal Purohit would have made it to the Parliament in the last last elections. Soon after the poll results, it was alleged that some BJP workers played deterrent to Purohit’s win and the key post bearers indulged in backbiting.

    nagpur-loksabha-2014

    This time, AAP may prove deterrent to BJP

    Unlike last general elections, poll percentage is expected to move up to 45-50% this year. A detailed study on the votes’ distribution predicts that it is going to be the final fight between Congress and BJP while AAP would play major role in turning sour BSP’s hopes for better performance. BSP has not yet announced its candidate but the party is likely to bank on the caste based equation. A poll expert on condition of anonymity predicted if the BSP picks up its candidate keeping the caste in mind, then it might be restricted to around 1.25 lakh votes. He said whatever support AAP would enjoy, the party could not go beyond 1 lakh votes or even low. “So the ultimate battle would be fought between BJP and Congress,” he added. Another long time political writer said that Delhi Assembly elections proved to be major loss for Congress, thanks to AAP. He added, “In Nagpur, AAP could serve blow to BJP on the basis of its young voters. If the total votes polled in favour of both BSP and AAP combined to shed BJP by 10 percent, then the BJP might end up getting 2.5 lakh votes in its favour.”

    Tough fight for Muttemwar

    As the BJP has fielded Nitin Gadkari, his poll mechanism may slightly benefit the party. An analyst said that Gadkari could attract mixed votes that could add 1 lakh votes to the party’s usual count. So this makes the scene a bit challenging for Congress which attracted 3,15,148 votes in its favour with support of its non-Congress allies in 2009 elections. This time, Vilas Muttemwar has to take it to 10 percent more to secure over 3.5 votes in order to make it for the 8th consecutive term.

    Parties focus on caste equation

    Various party candidates are eyeing Dalit, Muslim and Christian votes this Lok Sabha elections while OBC candidates are understood to act as the deciding factor. While these votes have been usual take away of Congress, the division of votes this time could benefit the BJP. The figures and political equations clearly indicate the fight between Gadkari and Muttemwar and experts feel both have to overcome the infighting and backbiting within their respective parties.

    Poll prediction (Based on voters’ survey and changed political equations)

    Based on the above analysis, this year 8 to 8.5 lakh voters are expected to turn out for voting in Nagpur Lok Sabha seat. While Congress can get somewhere around 3.5 lakh votes, BJP could get about 3.25 lakh votes. The votes polled in favour of AAP and BSP could total upto 1 lakh. With month to go to Poll this political equations may .

    However, it’s the voters who would take the final call anyway. Till then keep speculating…

    voteshares


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