Nagpur: Phalodi, a small town in the Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, popular as the key centre of election-related betting, or satta bazaar, has started trimming its bets on the BJP-led Government in Lok Sabha 2024 election. What makes the Phalodi Satta Bazaar so famous? It is for its bookies that rarely get a poll prediction wrong. The Phalodi market is known for its accuracy, a report in media claimed.
Currently, the bets are on BJP getting 303 seats — similar to its 2019 tally — from 330-335 seats predicted earlier. The NDA is expected to get 340-350 seats — less than the two-thirds majority. The Congress party is expected to secure around 50-51 seats.
According to the betting market, the Union Minister and BJP candidate Nitin Gadkari is likely to win in Nagpur constituency. The betting market indicates that the Congress has a stronghold in Chandrapur Lok Sabha seat. Here, against BJP’s Minister Sudhir Mungantiwar, Maha Vikas Aghadi has fielded Pratibha Dhanorkar for the election. Meanwhile, in the much-discussed Amravati Lok Sabha constituency, the rate is around Rs 90 for both Congress and BJP, the report said.
According to the report, currently, the satta market is offering a rate of 1:1 for BJP securing 300-303 seats, meaning that a bet of Re 1 would yield a profit of Re 1. However, for 320 seats, the rate is 2.25, indicating a higher risk. Hence, a bet of Rs 100 on 320 seats would result in a profit of Rs 225. The report suggests that bets placed significantly higher or lower than the standard rate are less popular in this election betting. For Congress, the rate is 1:1 for 50-51 seats, but 1:3 for 60-61 seats.
Two main factors are contributing to the BJP’s slower progress this time. First, the voter turnout in the first two rounds of voting for 190 seats has been lower than expected. Although the Election Commission significantly revised upwards the initial voter turnout of 61-62%, the impact has been minimal. A higher voter turnout was expected to benefit the ruling alliance, but the heat wave is believed to have deterred voter participation. The Supreme Court’s ruling on electoral bonds has also dented the ruling party’s reputation, according to the report in the Phalodi satta bazaar.
Current indications suggest that the BJP may lose some seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but gain a few in Uttar Pradesh.
It is worth noting that in the 2019 general elections, the BJP-led alliance secured more seats than predicted by the satta market. However, at that time, the wave of support for the ruling party following its response to the Pulwama attack two months before the election had a significant impact.
If the predictions are accurate, it would mean that Prime Minister Modi’s call for “abaki baar 400 paar” is unlikely to be achieved.
Phalodi, a small town in the Jodhpur district of Rajasthan, is known for its salt production and extreme temperatures. Despite its size and below-average literacy rate, it is the largest illegal market where people from across the country gamble on election results and cricket matches.
