The recent state assembly election results have unfolded several significant takeaways, reshaping the political landscape as the Congress witnesses a weakening grip in the Hindi-speaking belt while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces setbacks in its southern ambitions.
The foremost observation is the undeniable influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the BJP’s primary asset. With the vigor of a streetfighter and the strategic acumen of the best backroom players, Modi remains a political force unmatched by the Opposition. As Modi approaches his 10-year milestone as prime minister, the Opposition struggles to devise an effective strategy to counter his dominance.
Gold Rate
29 April 2025
A second takeaway challenges the efficacy of the caste survey narrative. Despite Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s belief and Rahul Gandhi’s endorsement of the caste survey leading to increased representation for OBCs/SCs/STs as a strategy against the BJP, recent elections demonstrate that even marginalized communities are not swayed by this argument. The resounding victories in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh defy expectations, emphasizing that voters prioritize factors like performance and connection over caste considerations.
The third revelation dispels the notion of ageism in Indian politics. Contrary to the calls for veteran leaders like Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh, and Ashok Gehlot to step aside, the success of 64-year-old Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh underscores that age is not a determining factor. Modi himself, at 73, continues to be a formidable political figure, proving that performance and electoral success eclipse age concerns.
The fourth takeaway offers a crucial lesson to the Congress regarding alliance politics. The party must commit wholeheartedly to alliances or go solo, as selective cooperation undermines its credibility. With a weakened position, the Congress cannot afford to challenge the BJP without solid alliances. Recognizing the importance of allies is imperative, considering they possess the ability to outperform the Congress in their respective territories.
The fifth takeaway hints at the potential electoral dominance of the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Modi’s ability to secure a substantial mandate is underscored by the recent state results. While challenges exist in the southern states and parts of the east, Modi’s historical electoral success suggests a formidable campaign is in the making for a third term.
For the Congress, the key takeaway remains the importance of resilience and determination, echoing the sentiment that it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog. While facing setbacks in some states, the party’s resurgence in the south, particularly in Telangana and Karnataka, offers hope for a potential revival.
However, for the BJP relying solely on Modi’s charisma may diminish the party’s broader appeal. The absence of a robust second tier of leaders capable of resonating with diverse demographics poses a potential challenge for the BJP when Modi’s magic eventually subsides. As the party revels in its current success, it’s crucial not to forget the dynamics of politics and the need for a sustainable leadership transition.
