Nagpur: The countdown for South-West monsoon 2018 has finally begun. This year, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that monsoon is most likely to set in Vidarbha by June 8. In normal, circumstances it reaches the region in second week of June. IMD has forecast that monsoon will touch Kerala on May 29, with an error margin of +/-4 days while Skymet Weather has forecast the onset date to be May 28 with an error margin of +/-2 days.
“Monsoon advances over Vidarbha normally around June 10-15, however, this year its onset is likely on June 6-8,” said Avinash Tathe, Director, Regional Meteorological Centre, Nagpur. Meanwhile, Vidarbha and some parts of Madhya Pradesh to face severe heat wave condition in next 48 hours. There is no relief from scorching heat in next week also, Tathe told ‘The Hitavada’. Before the onset of monsoon, temperature in some parts of Vidarbha including Nagpur, Chandrapur, Wardha, Bramhapuri, Akola and Amravati may be between 45 and 47 degree Celsius while temperature in other parts of Vidarbha will be around 45 degree Celsius, Tathe added.
On Friday, Chandrapur recorded the highest maximum temperature in the country with 47.4 degree Celsius while Damoh in Madhya Pradesh was 46.0 which was the second highest in the country. On Friday, Nagpurians braved the scoarch of 45.5 degree Celsius. Brahmapuri (45.6) and Khajuraho of Madhya Pradesh also recorded maximum temperature on the higher sides. According to IMD, the South-West monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea normally around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. Conditions are likely to become favorable for the advancement of South-West monsoon into some parts of Andaman Sea and South-East Bay of Bengal around May 23 this year.
Although the normal date of monsoon is June 1 but there have been early as well as delayed onset. However, the arrival of South-West monsoon has been never before May 10. To be precise, there has been a huge variation in the onset dates. In last 47 years, since 1971, there have been only three occasions — 1980, 2000 and 2013 — when monsoon hit the region on June 1. According to IMD, their operational forecasts of the date of onset of monsoon during the 13 years that is 2005-2017 were proved to be correct except in 2015.